In late February 2003, before the invasion of Iraq, I wrote of, "The coming American Holy War," in which I outlined "a template that describes modern American war-making as drawing on both the Northern and Southern models," of which the American Civil War is the premier, though not only, example.
Without re-relating all that, I note only that my bottom line of the piece was this:
In Afghanistan, the national honor was avenged and our enemies were destroyed, though not all of them, of course. The Southerners way of war has had its day. The Northerners war is imminent. American Holy War is coming to Iraq, and its people will be freed. Afghanistan was Stonewall Jackson's war, Iraq will be Joshua Chamberlain's.Now consider two pertinent points from this week. First, the op-ed in the WSJ by Kagan, Kagan and Keane that the war in Iraq has been won, though the victory has not been finalized.
But the peace to follow will probably be a mess.
All of the most important objectives of the surge have been accomplished in Iraq. The sectarian civil war is ended; al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has been dealt a devastating blow; and the Sadrist militia and other Iranian-backed militant groups have been disrupted.We're not out of the woods yet, but the light at the end of the tunnel is now very bright - if, as the authors point out, we maintain our resolve.
Meanwhile, the Iraqi government has accomplished almost all of the legislative benchmarks set by the U.S. Congress and the Bush administration. More important, it is gaining wider legitimacy among the population. ...
The blunt fact is this. In Iraq, al Qaeda is on the ropes, and the Shiite militias are badly off-balance.
The we come to Strategy Pages's succinct assessment:
July 16, 2008: The war is basically over in Iraq, but the peace brings with it a return to the corruption and inefficiency that has cursed this part of the world for centuries. There are other annoying habits, like demanding "compensation" for any real or imagined loss that might possibly be pinned on U.S. troops. It's also popular to demand, with a straight face, that U.S. troops fix utilities, schools and whatever else people want, but are unwilling to take care of themselves. Peace has not brought out the best in the Iraqi people. ...Read the whole thing. Yes, a mess. So far. But that may change, too.
The U.S. is negotiating, with the Iraqi government, a renewal of its authority to operate in Iraq. This authority expires at the end of the year. As part of the negotiations, the Iraqis are asking for a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops. This is popular with many Iraqis, especially those in the government who are getting rich by stealing oil money. As long as the American troops are in the country, auditors have armed protection and can be very effective at revealing the thefts and getting the thieves punished. This makes thieving government officials very uncomfortable. Corruption in general remains a major problem (as it is in all Middle Eastern countries). While many Iraqis would like to see clean government, they are usually not the ones who get elected (elections involve a lot of bribery and trading of favors.)



