Monday, May 14, 2012

Stock pickers and fortune tellers

By Donald Sensing

Warren Buffett is credited with saying that stock pickers are the only people that can make fortune tellers look good. I wrote Thursday about why oil prices have been tanking lately. So this piece caught my eye today:
Tuesday’s ETF To Watch: Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil UCO ETF DAILY NEWS:

In light of crude’s recent behaviors, today’s ETF to watch will be the Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil (NYSEARCA:UCO). This fund employs a 2X leverage on crude oil futures, making it one of the most volatile but potentially rewarding funds to play this commodity. Though the fund does not have much in the way of assets ($234 million), it is a popular trading instrument, as it currently has an average daily volume of 1.1 million shares. 
ETF means electronically traded fund, analogous to a mutual fund, but with a very narrow market focus and that can be traded throughout the day, rather than at only the closing price as an ordinary mutual fund. UCO is a long fund, meaning its price rises when oil's price rises. "2X leverage" means that the price of the fund should double the price moves of the underlying commodity. If oil goes up one percent, then the fund price should go up two percent. If oil falls X percent, then UCO's price will fall 2X percent.

So at the end of this little piece we find this sage advice:
If crude continues to slide into tomorrow’s trading session, UCO will get crushed, but if the commodity were to see some relief, this ETF will profit handsomely
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what we call a BGOO - a Blinding Glimpse of the Obvious. Once again, I am reminded of Will Rogers' advice on how to make money trading stocks: "Buy a stock when the price is low and sell it after it goes up. If it doesn't go up, don't buy it."

BTW, UCO dropped more than 3.5 percent today.

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Unemployment rate drops by pro-rata 230,000

By Donald Sensing

Report says 230,000 unemployed losing benefits over weekend - The Hill's On The Money:

Because of the way the Obama administration measure unemployment, when unemployed people exhaust their eligibility to receive unemployment-insurance checks, they drop out of being counted as unemployed. See here.

But they are still not working.

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Sunday, May 13, 2012

As goes Japan so may go the world

By Donald Sensing

The Asian Tiger ― Japan ― is in danger of extinction

May 7, 2012 (HLIWorldWatch.org) - Do you know any Japanese people? If you do, you had better look fast, because they’re an endangered species. 
According to the United Nations, every hour of the day and night there are thirty less Japanese in the world. By the end of this year, there will be 200,000 less, and by the year 2050, Japan will have lost nearly a quarter of its population. 
Such is the legacy of a country which has so eagerly embraced materialism and the Culture of Death. 
Japan is invaluable as a demographic laboratory because it is practically a closed system, with almost no emigration or immigration. Its 99 percent ethnically homogenous population gives us a rare glimpse of what the future holds for the entire world. 
The problem is simple: Japanese women have virtually stopped having babies. ... 
What may we learn from the ongoing slow-motion Japanese disaster? 
Just as Japan is a closed system, so is the world. Just as Japan’s population leveled out and began to plunge, so will the world’s, and very soon. This will lead to gigantic economic consequences and human suffering on a scale never before known. 
Yet the population control cartel continues to abort, sterilize and contracept the people of the world just as fast as they can, 
Worldwide demographic trends have the momentum of a supertanker. The world’s total fertility rate will hit replacement in just two years. Its population will peak in only three decades and then begin to decline. 
The time to end population control programs and promote larger families is now.


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Thursday, May 10, 2012

Why are oil prices tanking?

By Donald Sensing

Commodity Trading Trends: Why Crude Oil Prices Are Slipping
It's really not that complicated:

Crude has lost more than 8% of its price in the trailing five days as investors watched the fossil fuel close below $100 for the first time in recent memory. “The Energy Department said last week that U.S. crude inventories have risen to the highest level since 1990. That was followed by the Labor Department on Friday announcing the economy added only 115,000 jobs in April, far fewer than the 165,000 analysts were expecting” writes Pablo Gorondi.
The chart, click to enlarge:


Folks, there is a lot of money to be made in oil's price movements  - and just as much to be lost. One investment web site I read said that oil funds, such as USO or DTO or UWTI, are not investments, they are trades because buyers have to be willing and able to get in and get out very quickly. And that can put you into the middle of Wash Rule trading, so be careful.

I am reminded of Will Rogers' advice on how to make money trading stocks: "Buy a stock when the price is low and sell it after it goes up. If it doesn't go up, don't buy it."

Oh, oil is up a little today.

Update - more insight:



Update:
“We’re facing price pressure on the supply side and the demand side,” said David McAlvany, chief executive officer of McAlvany Financial Group in Durango, Colorado. “We continue to see big increases in crude supply. There’s palpable fear in Europe, and it’s not limited to Greece” writes Mark Shenk. Yesterday’s inventory levels showed a jump to nearly 380 million barrels, the highest that stockpile has been in almost 22 years. Crude futures have shaved off nearly 10% in the last six days as some paint a bleak future for this commodity.

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Julia inside the State

By Donald Sensing

Ed Driscoll:

JENNIFER RUBIN ON THE LIFE OF #JULIA: It should be called ‘Life of a dependent liberal.’
Plus this quote from Bill Bennett:
For Republicans, Julia’s story might seem like a joke too good to be true, but they should take it very seriously. Because buried within “The Life of Julia” is the ideological vision of modern liberalism — to create a state that takes care of its people from cradle to grave. The story of Julia is a microcosm of Obama’s vision for America and emblematic of his view of the government’s role in an individual’s life.
Or to put it another way, all within the state, nothing outside the state.
Gee, that sounds familiar.

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Obama to Assad: Do what I say or I will taunt you again!

By Donald Sensing

Obama Hits Syria With Brutal Blast of Adverbs - Obama supporter Jeffrey Goldberg doesn't think too much of Obama's war of words against Syrian dictator Bashir Assad:

When the uprising began last year, the Obama administration clearly hoped that softer language would persuade Assad to cease murdering Syrians. It relied on traditional formulations of diplomatic distaste, calling on Syria to “exercise restraint” and “respect the rights of its citizens.”

When it became clear that mild criticism wouldn’t stay Assad’s hand, the administration began carpet-bombing Damascus with powerful sentences and, at times, whole paragraphs.

In April 2011, shortly after Syrian security forces killed more than 80 unarmed demonstrators, President Barack Obama said, “This outrageous use of violence to quell protests must come to an end now.” He accused the Syrian government of using “brutal” tactics against civilians.

Somehow, such combative words still didn’t persuade Assad to change course. Soon, the president’s press secretary, Jay Carney, was forced to remind Assad, and the world, of the president’s rhetorical militancy. 
“I’m sure you did see the president’s very strong statement of Friday where he condemned in the strongest possible terms the use of force by the Syrian government against demonstrators, referred to an outrageous use of violence to quell protests,” Carney said. He also mentioned that the White House didn’t merely “oppose” the Syrian government’s treatment of its citizens, but “strongly” opposed it.
How to visualize the administration's policy? Something like this:



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Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Caroline Glick :: War with Egypt approaches

By Donald Sensing

Caroline Glick :: War with Egypt approaches
Caroline is one of the most sober-minded Israeli journalists. So this is chilling:

There are two obvious lessons from what is happening in Egypt. First, the land for peace formula is crazy. We gave land for peace and now that they have decided to destroy the peace, they get to keep the land. In the clip below they say their path to invasion goes through Gaza. So here too, they show that all the people who said that Gaza had no value to Israel were wrong twice. As the daily shelling from Gaza into Israel shows, our presence in Gaza prevented attacks on southern Israel. And as their declarations make clear, our presence in Gaza blocked a convergence of Palestinian and Egyptian forces in the Sinai which -- with its 220 km border with Israel, is now the preferred launching point for attacks. 
The second lesson is of course that all the enthusiasm over "Arab democracy" by Westerners, and particularly by conservatives desperate for a way to make war seem like a redemptive experience or something was irresponsible to the point of maliciousness. 
We warned you over and over again that this would turn out badly. But you said we were wrong and indeed, somehow immoral to prefer Mubarak to "the people." 
Now I just have a little request for all of you brilliant ones who lobbied Obama to dump Mubarak. No, I don't expect you to apologize. All I ask is that next time you hug your kids, think about the Israeli children whose lives you placed in danger with your irresponsible pontifications. The clip below is from a campaign rally for the (moderate) Muslim Brotherhood's candidate for Egypt's presidency Muhammad Mursi. Oh, and the Obama administration just transferred another $1.5 billion in US taxpayer funds to Egypt.
Closely relevant:

THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD sheds its mask
Some of us have seen through these guys all along. When I met with Muslim Brotherhood spokesman Essam El-Erian in Cairo he gave methe most bizarre and frankly deranged interview of my entire career so far.
And a majority of Egyptians want Egypt's peace treaty with Israel scrapped.

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Obama tries to channel Reagan

By Donald Sensing

AdWatch: Obama pushes recovery in new ad

TITLE: "Go"

LENGTH: 60 seconds ...

ANALYSIS: Obama's ad recalls the positive "morning in America" spot run by Republican Ronald Reagan in his 1984 re-election bid. Like that ad, Obama's presents a narrative of U.S. recovery in an effort to woo swing voters. It reminds viewers just how grim things were in 2008, at the height of the financial meltdown, and presents Obama as someone who worked hard to improve the situation. But unlike Reagan, Obama doesn't have a clear-cut economic recovery to run on. Obama's ad also contains doom-and-gloom elements not present in Reagan's ad.
Obama taking up Reagan's mantle? Well, let's go to the chart.

cjhart

Shaded areas indicate recessions. Compare the 1980's line with the line since the beginning of 2009. And note that even after the official end of the recession that began late in G.W. Bush's second term, wages under Obama have continued to drop like a brick. If this is "morning in America," heaven help us when it's later in the day!

Lots more here:



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Money can't buy happiness

By Donald Sensing

During an episode of the '60s series, Gilligan's Island, multimillionaire Thurston Howell III comments that money can't buy happiness. His wife immediately retorts, "People who say that simply don't know where to shop."

In fact, research shows that Thurston was correct.

Earned success means defining your future as you see fit and achieving that success on the basis of merit and hard work. It allows you to measure your life's "profit" however you want, be it in money, making beautiful music, or helping people learn English. Earned success is at the root of American exceptionalism.

The link between earned success and life satisfaction is well established by researchers. The University of Chicago's General Social Survey, for example, reveals that people who say they feel "very successful" or "completely successful" in their work lives are twice as likely to say they are very happy than people who feel "somewhat successful." It doesn't matter if they earn more or less income; the differences persist.

The opposite of earned success is "learned helplessness," a term coined by Martin Seligman, the eminent psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania. It refers to what happens if rewards and punishments are not tied to merit: People simply give up and stop trying to succeed.
Except that there is a personality type that I have encountered more than a few for which actually earning one's success is shunned. This is a dependent person who knows it and is quite content with it. Arthur Brooks, writer of the cited piece, told of his early years as a member of the Barcelona Symphony.
Even as a foreigner, I had the same lifetime work status as a clerk at the water department. Nobody ever left these jobs, except with lavish disability packages. (One colleague who injured his lips moonlighting at a dance-hall gig ended up spending the next 20 years collecting a full salary to stay home.)
This is the entitlement-dependent mentality and America is progressing rapidly toward it.

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Headlines reveal truth about Obama-conomy

By Donald Sensing

Here are three news-story headlines that get to the nub of Americ'a economy:

1.Unemployment rate falls to 8.1%; 115,000 jobs were added, well short of the 168,000 that had been expected.

However:

2. "Job openings reach three year high - The number of positions waiting to be filled increased by 172,000 to 3.74 million."

So there are more jobs available now than at almost any time President Obama has been in office. Yet that record number of jobs are not being filled. Why? Well, en route to the third headline we'll take another look at America's labor-force participation. This is a graph that shows the percentage of people who are eligible to work, age 16 and higher, who actually are working. This is the chart prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is current as of May 8.


The present rate is 63.6 percent. The Bureau also presents the historic rate, by month, for the past 10 calendar years. Try to find a month in which the rate was as low as today:


And so the third headline:

3."Is President Obama’s Law Keeping Unemployment High?"
Two years after President Obama signed it into law, there is evidence the slow economic recovery could be partly due to his namesake health care law.

According to analyses conducted by the Heritage Foundation and others, the passage of President Obama’s law correlates with a dramatic slowdown in the economic recovery and in private sector hiring. Prior to the law’s passage in April 2010, private sector job creation had improved by 67,600 jobs per month since Obama’s inauguration. But in May 2010, private employers created only 48,000 net jobs, and private sector hiring became stagnant, averaging only 6,700 more jobs created per month into the early months of 2012.
Let's go to the chart: "The Obamacare Effect on Employment"

The Obamacare Effect on Employment


Even without reading any of the story accompanying the headlines, you get the relationship between this president's economic policies and private-sector employment: Obama has raised the marginal costs of hiring new workers. So businesses sharply reduce hiring. Jobs therefore go unfilled and fewer people are hired than even gullible government economists expect (see also here). Yet the official unemployment rate falls because the Bureau does not count as unemployed people who have dropped out of the total labor pool altogether or who want to work full time but have taken part-time jobs. Even so, there are fewer adults working now than at any time in the last 10 years (actually much longer, but that's the chart).

But not to worry! The intrepid USNews knows the real story and provides your bonus headline number four:

4. "Improving Economy Driving Independents Back to Obama; Analysts say increased Obama support tied to job growth."

Are the in-tank, Kool-Aid drunk media really that oblivious? Why yes, yes they are.

This, too: "Desperately avoiding Obamanomics and Obamacare"

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Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Wife watches husband die in Afghanistan live on Skype

By Donald Sensing

It just doesn't get much worse than this:

DALLAS (AP) — An Army nurse showed no alarm or discomfort before suddenly collapsing during a Skype video chat with his wife, who saw a bullet hole in a closet behind him, his family said Sunday. 
Capt. Bruce Kevin Clark's family released a statement describing what his wife saw in the video feed recording her husband's death in Tarin Kowt, Afghanistan. It's not clear how the bullet hole got in the closet. 
"Clark was suddenly knocked forward," the statement from the soldier's family said. "The closet behind him had a bullet hole in it. The other individuals, including a member of the military, who rushed to the home of CPT Clark's wife also saw the hole and agreed it was a bullet hole. 
The statement says the Skype link remained open for two hours on April 30 as family and friends in the U.S. and Afghanistan tried to get Clark help.

Technology is not an unmixed blessing.

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What really killed the dinosaurs

By Donald Sensing

Contrary to the latest and very best of science and paleoclimate studies, dinosaurs did not in fact fart themselves to death.

Gary Larson exposed the truth about what killed the dinosaurs years ago.



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The unknown unknowns

By Donald Sensing

Stephens: To the Class of 2012 - WSJ.com:

Fact One is that, in our "knowledge-based" economy, knowledge counts. Yet here you are, probably the least knowledgeable graduating class in history. 
A few months ago, I interviewed a young man with an astonishingly high GPA from an Ivy League university and aspirations to write about Middle East politics. We got on the subject of the Suez Crisis of 1956. He was vaguely familiar with it. But he didn't know who was president of the United States in 1956. And he didn't know who succeeded that president.  
Pop quiz, Class of '12: Do you?
Well, do you, punk?

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Why bin Laden watched so much porn

By Donald Sensing



You may recall that when President Obama personally led a SEAL team off the helicopters in Pakistan and then looked Osama bin Laden in the eye and said, "Die, raghead!" just as pulled the trigger, we learned that among the many kinds of materials snatched for their intelligence exploitation were thousands (or more) of porn videos and digital images.

Wow, what a loser bin Laden turned out to be! From the head of a worldwide terror network to a middle-aged, solitary porno freak.

Why did bin Laden watch so much porn? As it turns out, there might have been something much more nefarious than cheap thrills: "Al Qaeda suspect's porn film found to contain treasure trove of secret documents."
A suspected member of the Al Qaeda terrorist group, arrested in May last year in Germany, was found with a memory stick hidden in his underwear. Police discovered the stick contained a password-protected folder with pornographic videos inside it, but suspicious computer forensic experts thought there must be more. After weeks of analysis, they determined that one of the pornographic videos contained concealed documents detailing Al Qaeda operations and plans.

The files were hidden in the video file through a process called steganography or concealed writing. The term steganography includes methods used for centuries, such as invisible ink, but now also includes techniques such as concealing (often unencrypted) content inside a digital image, video or audio file. Steganography conceals data within “plain sight,” which makes it difficult to detect.

Digital steganography can be done on audio files by manipulating the waveform to hide data, but such changes produce noise that is more obvious than changes visible to the eye. Data can be hidden in image files opened in a text editor simply by inserting text at the end of the file, but more sophisticated and effective methods use special software to manipulate individual bytes or pixels of the media file.

For example, readily available software can be used to manipulate the properties of individual pixels within an image. The color of pixels is determined by vector values representing the intensity of each color (red, green and blue in RGB systems, for example), and these values can be manipulated to hide data.
So all of bin Laden's porn viewing was really operational planning!

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Earth's water: less than you think!

By Donald Sensing

Wow, this graphic from Phys.org puts things into perspective. The question is: if you collected every drop of water on the planet and made a sphere from it, how big would the sphere be?

A lot smaller than you might think:

Earth has less water than you think
All the water on Earth would fit into a sphere 860 miles (1,385 km) wide. Credit: Jack Cook/WHOI/USGS
According to the U. S. Geological Survey, it would make a ball 860 miles (1,385 km) in diameter, about as wide edge-to-edge as the distance between Salt Lake City to Topeka, Kansas. That’s it. Take all the water on Earth and you’d have a blue sphere less than a third the size of the Moon.

Feeling a little thirsty?

And this takes into consideration all the Earth’s water… even the stuff humans can’t drink or directly access, like salt water, water vapor in the atmosphere and the water locked up in the ice caps. In fact, if you were to take into consideration only the fresh water on Earth (which is 2.5% of the total) you’d get a much smaller sphere… less than 100 miles (160 km) across.
The volume of this sphere is 332,869,307 cubic miles. It's still a lot of water!

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Obama throws JFK under the bus

By Donald Sensing

RealClearPolitics - Obama Ditches JFK's Legacy:

"Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country," President John F. Kennedy famously said in his inaugural address. In his bid for re-election, the hope-and-change president, Barack Obama, clearly has decided to ditch JFK's country-first approach. The Obama-Biden campaign is all about what this country can do for voters.
The most critical skill for D.C. politicians to learn is how to bribe the voters with the voters' own money.

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Monday, May 7, 2012

Lusitania carried munitions? Old news.

By Donald Sensing

Lusitania
"Doomed: A contemporary view of the sinking of the Lusitania off Ireland in May 1915"
The MailOnline seems to think it has scored a reporting and historical goal in its 2008 article, "Secret of the Lusitania: Arms find challenges Allied claims it was solely a passenger ship." The piece is linked today at RealClearHistory.
Her sinking with the loss of almost 1,200 lives caused such outrage that it propelled the U.S. into the First World War. 
But now divers have revealed a dark secret about the cargo carried by the Lusitania on its final journey in May 1915. 
Munitions they found in the hold suggest that the Germans had been right all along in claiming the ship was carrying war materials and was a legitimate military target.
The Cunard vessel, steaming from New York to Liverpool, was sunk eight miles off the Irish coast by a U-boat. 
Maintaining that the Lusitania was solely a passenger vessel, the British quickly accused the 'Pirate Hun' of slaughtering civilians. 
The disaster was used to whip up anti-German anger, especially in the U.S., where 128 of the 1,198 victims came from. ... 
The diving team estimates that around four million rounds of U.S.-manufactured Remington .303 bullets lie in the Lusitania's hold at a depth of 300ft. 
The Germans had insisted the Lusitania  -  the fastest liner in the North Atlantic  -  was being used as a weapons ship to break the blockade Berlin had been trying to impose around Britain since the outbreak of hostilities in August 1914. ... 
The discovery may help explain why the 787ft Lusitania sank within 18 minutes of a single German torpedo slamming into its hull.  
Some of the 764 survivors reported a second explosion which might have been munitions going off.

A great deal more is being made of this than is warranted. That Lusitania was carrying munitions is in fact not news. When the passenger liner went down, killing 128 (some sources say 123) Americans, it marked a key event in turning American public opinion against Germany.

I first posted about this in 2002 on my first blog, no longer online. But here it is, with a lot more about the back story than the Mail's piece.

In February 1915, three months before the sinking, Germany had declared that the waters surrounding the British Isles were a "war zone," and that enemy merchant ships were subjected to destruction without warning necessarily being given. This practice was a clear violation of the Declaration of Paris of 1856 and its successor, the London Declaration of 1909 (which was never ratified but consensually considered by Western governments to be in force anyway). The laws and accepted customs of naval war required enemy non-combatant vessels to be warned prior to sinking and their crews allowed to heave off in lifeboats. (If the vessel resisted or attempted escape, though, it could be summarily destroyed.) The non-combatant vessel category included cargo ships not armed for naval combat.

At that stage in the war, the German submarine force was small, and under the conditions of the Declarations, a blockade had to be successful to be legal. In other words, the international agreements of the day required that a blockading power actually have the military means to enforce it. However, the German blockade was ineffective because British ships continued to flow mostly unimpeded into and out of Britain's ports.

Even so, the British Admiralty had already armed some merchant vessels with naval cannon as early as March 1914, when First Sea Lord Winston Churchill notified the House of Commons that 40 merchantmen were each equipped with 4.7-inch guns. The Admiralty intended, even before the war erupted, to arm another thirty such ships by March 1915.

British records suggest that the cannon would be located to fire astern only, at pursuers, and that the ships so armed would be loaded solely with food for Britain. (A curious thing, since under the Declarations, ships carrying food were off limits to attack.) The cannon were intended only to enable escape; the ships would be ordered not to fight enemy surface warships and were supposed to surrender if overtaken or threatened with imminent destruction.

This decision was protested by British Admiral Fisher, who wrote the Prime Minister in May 1914, "the recent arming of our British merchant ships is unfortunate, for it gives the hostile submarine an excellent excuse (if she needs one) for sinking them."

After war broke out, the Admiralty instructed British merchantmen to to escape attacks if possible but to resist if not. They were told to ram U-boats if feasible. Subsequently, steamers were directed to fire on enemy submarines even if the submarine had not fired. These orders meant that any U-boat which surfaced to give warning was seriously endangering itself because U-boats were actually quite fragile. German commanders became aware of the British order through signals intelligence and copies from captured ships. Before the sinking of Lusitania, there were two cases of armed merchantmen resisting submarines.

British historians seem mostly to agree that the Admiralty's order to merchantmen to resist submarines by force of arms - orders known to submarine commanders - played a much larger role in the decision of the captain of U-20 to torpedo Lusitania without warning than the presence of war stores in the ship's hold.

There is no clear evidence that the US government knew of the British policy until December 1915. The American public's furor against Germany over the sinking was unrelated to the fact that Lusitania was carrying rifle cartridges and shapnel cases (unfilled fragmentation shells). It was over the fact that Germany sank a passenger liner, without warning, carrying a significant number of Americans, of whom 123 died.

Let's take a look at what arms Lusitania was carrying. There is no dispute that it held 4,200 cases of Remington .303 rifle cartridges, a very large number of cartridges. There were also 1,250 cases of 3-inch artillery shrapnel shells, and with eighteen cases of fuzes (presumably artillery fuzes to go along with the shrapnel shells). The shrapnel shells were filled with their lethal load of shrapnel but not with their explosive bursting charge. Artillery fuzes have a very small amount of non-sensitive explosive designed to be initiated only by impact forces.

(Shrapnel shells were a specific design until artillery shells began to be packed with high explosive near the end of World War I and have not been used since then. What newspaper today call "shrapnel" is actually shell-casing fragments, not shrapnel. Shrapnel shells were named after the British officer who invented them in the 1850s.)

However, the claim that this cargo's detonation caused the ship to sink rapidly lacks evidence, specifically evidence (rather than mere assertion) that Lusitania was carrying highly explosive military stores. Rifle ammunition, even in bulk, does not explode when exposed to fire - I have some expert training in that matter, and also cite a 1910 test by the Municipal Explosives Commission of New York City in which Remington cartridges in bulk quantity were set alight. They burned but did not explode. Remington was then granted license to ship them by coastal steamer, which was the point of the whole drill. The shrapnel shells had no explosive loaded in them, and the fuzes each were not much more powerful than a decent firecracker.

The assertion that the British "covertly" shipped the arms is false as is the claim that presence of munitions is a new discovery. The New York newspapers listed full descriptions the arms cargo in the May 8 editions, only the day after the sinking. Their source was the two manifests filed by Cunard Lines. Churchill openly discussed the arms cargo in public writings in 1923. The contemporary record is that the presence of the arms was well known and was no big deal.

Assertions that artillery propellant cases and other purely explosive stores were shipped must overcome serious obstacles. First, there is no mention on the manifests of them. Second, Britain was successfully shipping enormous quantities of such stores on cargo-only vessels. There was no reason to use Lusitania. The cargo space on Lusitania, a passenger liner, for such shipment would have been minuscule, literally not worth the effort.

Furthermore, it was entirely legal under US, British and international law to ship the rifle ammunition, shrapnel shells and fuzes. Arms sales by neutral nations to belligerents was permitted in 1915 under US law and continued to be legal until enactment of the Neutrality Act in 1935. And the shipment of those specific kinds of material on passenger liners was quite legal.

So the issue regarding whether Lusitania was a legitimate target is not really an issue. It was, but only because both Britain and Germany had cast overboard significant sections of the governing declarations. Under the naval war agreements of the day, U-20 should have warned the liner and given the crew and passengers time to escape on boats. But, as we have seen, there were circumstances that probably reasonably caused the U-boat captain not to give the warning. However, that being said, he used really bad judgment in sinking the ship. It was a singularly brutal act that conferred to Germany no strategic or political advantage.

All witnesses, as well the the British official inquiry, agree that there were two explosions and that the second caused the rapid sinking. The inquiry concuded U-20 fired two torpedos, but U-20's log records only one being launched. That only one torpedo was fired is probably the only settled fact of the whole event.

U-20 recorded that the torpedo hit aft the bridge on the starboard side. This location is just forward of the no. 1 boiler and just aft its coal bunker. This location was determined by U-20s commander looking through the scope. (The attack occurred just after 2 p.m. so there was excellent visibility.) Lusitania's survivors did not agree on the location of the hit.

It is already ruled out that the military stores caused the second, catastrophic explosion. There is also a popular myth that the rushing in of the cold sea water, hitting the nearby boiler, caused it to explode. But that is just a myth. Cold water hitting a hot boiler makes the boiler cold, that's all.

Robert Ballard, who explored Titanic, Yorktown and Bismarck, also explored Lusitania. He concluded that the second explosion was caused by the detonation of coal dust suspended in the air in the boiler sections near the torpedo's strike. This is the most plausible theory; coal mines take strong measures to keep dust down exactly because of the explosive hazard. Unfortunately, the shop settled on its starboard side so Ballard could not see the impact point. So this theory too must remain an educated guess at best.

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Sunday, May 6, 2012

The great 31/32 Caucasian melting pot

By Donald Sensing

Composite Americans - Mark Steyn:

Hallelujah! In the old racist America, we had quadroons and octoroons. But in the new post-racial America, we have — hang on, let me get out my calculator — duoettrigintaroons! Martin Luther King dreamed of a day when men would be judged not on the color of their skin but on the content of their great-great-great-grandmother’s wedding-license application. And now it’s here! You can read all about it in Elizabeth Warren’s memoir of her struggles to come to terms with her racial identity, Dreams from My Great-Great-Great-Grandmother
Alas, the actual original marriage license does not list Great-Great-Great-Gran’ma as Cherokee, but let’s cut Elizabeth Fauxcahontas Crockagawea Warren some slack here. She couldn’t be black. She would if she could, but she couldn’t. But she could be 1/32nd Cherokee, and maybe get invited to a luncheon with others of her kind — “people who are like I am,” 31/32nds white, and they can all sit around celebrating their diversity together. She is a testament to America’s melting pot, composite pot, composting pot, whatever.
And so:


120503-left-wing-style-guide.jpg


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"Conscientious objectors to Obama’s forward march"

By Donald Sensing

Generalissimo Obama | Washington Free Beacon:

One of President Obama’s most annoying habits is his tendency to mistake the 300 million people of the United States for soldiers in an army charged with national reconstruction. He, of course, is the general. 
The tic is often barely perceptible, revealed subtly in those moments when Obama decries partisan politics for interfering with his plans; when he speaks of coming together for the common purpose of redistributing private income to—sorry, “investing” taxpayer dollars in—Democratic client groups; and during the rare occasions when he feels it necessary to address the nation on matters of national security and war. 
Here is the president in August 2010, announcing the end of combat operations in Iraq: “And so at this moment, as we wind down the war in Iraq, we must tackle those challenges at home with as much energy, and grit, and sense of common purpose as our men and women in uniform who have served abroad.” 
The way to “honor” American heroes who serve overseas, Obama said, is “by coming together, all of us, and working to secure the dream that so many generations have fought for—the dream that a better life awaits anyone who is willing to work for it and reach for it.” 
What does “coming together” mean? Why, silly, it means passing Obama’s domestic agenda: more money for education and job training and to “jumpstart industries that create jobs, and end our dependence on foreign oil,” and just happen to be owned by donors to the president’s campaigns. Missing from the 2010 speech was a line saying the path to heroism is through support for the Buffett Rule, probably because David Axelrod hadn’t yet come up with that particular gimmick. 
The nation-as-army metaphor reemerged, dramatically, as the 2012 campaign began. Jonah Goldberg was justifiably disgusted at the message of this year’s State of the Union Address, in which the president suggested that Americans as a whole might take their cues from uniformed soldiers who are “not consumed with personal ambition,” “don’t obsess over their differences,” “focus on the mission at hand,” and “work together.” 
Obama finds inspiration in the most hierarchical and selfless elements of military life. “Imagine what we could accomplish if we followed their example,” he said. We imagine all of us would have to buy health insurance. Taxes and spending would be high. A new Volt would sit in every driveway.
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Horse and movie

By Donald Sensing

One of the non-winners in yesterday's Kentucky Derby was named Went the Day Well. The horse was named after a British World War 2 movie, made in 1942 in fact, which is viewable in entirety on YouTube here.

"The residents of a British village during WWII welcome a platoon of soldiers who are to be billeted with them. The trusting residents then discover that the soldiers are Germans who proceed to hold the village captive."

Or you can watch it here:



HT: Wintery Knight

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